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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: HairBall who wrote (40)7/2/2001 1:25:38 PM
From: Jim Willie CB of 306849
 
I recall reading about the 17-18 year cycle back in 1997-98
talked about how it works off every major stock bear
but remains steady unfettered thru minor stock shocks

at end of major stock decline tends to come a final blowoff top into real estate property
property is seen as "safer" than stocks
but this only serves to ensure a top in real estate as well
a natural cycle moving wealth from stocks late in its intangible cycle into more tangible assets

very difficult to identify clearly when this RE cycle began
perhaps in 1981 in New England
must have been in there somewhere with the Reagan Recession
(of course it was the Carter Recession, lagged by a couple years)

in greater Boston I heard from friend in Commercial RE firm
he said on unit sale basis, Boston is down 6% in May'01 vs May'00 on residential side
office space rentals have hit the wall, virtual standstill
prices per sqft have come down about 40-45%
also, rentals of summer cottages on Cape Cod are at a 13-yr high now

but with employment still holding on, and attractive mortgage rates, and several towns imposing builder limits, residential has held up reasonably well in price

for what it is worth
maybe two hours rent on your apartment
/ jim
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