Rarebird re: glut of handhelds said, ". . . You[']r[e] dealing with a commodity here that is in tremendous over supply with decreasing demand . . ."
While I agree that we are dealing with a commodity, just like we did with pagers, then cell phones, and even with consumer PCs, I was under the impression that the absolute number of handhelds in use, domestically as well as internationally, is projected to grow substantially for the next few years (like in the mid-double digits for a few years- see UBS/Paine Webber's recent reports). As long as PALM can maintain share, it may make up on volume some of what it loses on shrinking per-unit margins. The key for investors, of course, is guessing where, on the curve of diminishing returns, the parabola is going sideways more than upwards. Maybe some of the posters who tried to time Nokia, MOT, etc., can help us out here by telling us what to look for.
I also think Rarebird's on to something on how to play the wireless market if the volatility of the consumable hardware market drives one crazy - you can't do long distance wireless without a carrier. 8-)
Regards,
Harry J. |
