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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (111078)7/2/2001 6:19:40 PM
From: ild  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
From today's Don Hays:
For instance, I look at the option volatility index (VIX) each day. I
haven’t upgraded it as a primary indicator, however, because it is very difficult to
tell how high is high, and how low is low. I personally feel that the next three
months will see this indicator fall to the 18-19 zone, but many bears out there
have been using the recent 21-22 level as a sign that a new bear market was
evolving.
I believe that the action of the market is now poised for a 3-month move on the
upside that will push the Dow Industrials to a new all-time record high. Yes, my
target is 12,600, but remember that opening thought. I might change that several
times along the way. If you remember my analogy back a few months ago of the
sectors of the market all circling overhead like a flock of geese--first one leader,
and then another. That is what has been occurring for the last three months. But
now it appears to me that the stage is set for that big push upward that will
produce a final peak in MOMENTUM in the next 3-4 months, and an obvious
breaking out of the pack by the real leaders of this flight. Please reread that last
sentence--I didn’t say a final peak in the market, I said momentum. The market
could easily spend an ensuing period of high volatility and even a higher high, but
I am guessing that most of the fireworks will be ignited in these next few months.

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