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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 345.82+0.2%Jan 12 3:59 PM EST
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To: John Rowton who wrote (15568)6/16/1997 10:11:00 PM
From: phbolton   of 53903
 
Conference call notes: during 3rd quarter ASP was $8.25 and about 70% of business was contract and rest spot. this is much, much higher contract percentage than in past. contracts run from one week to one month. current spot price is about $7 and contract about $7.50. estimate that competitors have 2+ months inventory. estimate that MU will continue to increase bit production by 25-30% per quarter. DRAM contributed $0.20/share of earnings. market for memory upgrades weak, pretty good market for memory from box makers. About 10 million SDRAM to be shipped next quarter and about 1 million 64 Mb chips. first test shipments of 256Mb have been made to two customers. predict cross-over of costs of 64 and 16 in about august-september time period. Lehi sounds like toast as MU is apparently going to 256Mb without it. all questions on Lehi evaded. pretty straightforward, and reasonable, answers to most of the other questions. my take: gross margins were anomalously high in past quarter and have already dropped. arithmetic: 50% margin at 8.25 means that with a price drops to $7.25 (average of spot and contract) and margin is now in the mid 30s. DRAM side may continue to contribute 0.15 to 0.25/share per quarter but its not clear how they can get much more without a real change in the marketplace. analysts asking questions did not sound cheerful nor did they sound dreary and they seemed reasonably well informed. I did not listen to MUEI part. And no, Grim did not ask any questions.
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