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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (5544)7/3/2001 4:06:43 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (3) of 74559
 
<<Owning gold along with hordes of Aztecs is like owning Techstocks during irrational exuberance>>

<Bingo, ding dong, bong, bong, bong, siren sounds, drum roll, lights flash, crowds cheer, balloons rise, clouds break, and bugs gets rich without effort:0)>

But I avoid buying during irrational exuberance because that's the greater-fool theory in action. However, I did buy Globalstar during the dot.com hysteria [I weighed the risk of the market hysteria on other companies taking me down too when they inevitably crashed, but in the end, Globalstar crashed all by itself and more spectacularly than nearly all others, starting with a Zenit, nearly taking out the world's financial system via Long Term Capital Management, then failing to sell due to overpriced minutes].

I will not buying into any more hysteria, especially when there is not even a potential return on investment [if non-producing assets can be called investments] and there is no sign of the said hysteria. I would not want to be the greatest fool. There is no alarm bell at the top of a market hysteria. Maybe the top of gold is now. If the cost of production is less than the price of gold now, then it probably is the top [give or take a little].

Gold is in the hills. It is not 'the hills' as in head for the hills.

I'm licking Globalstar wounds, lying out in the sun today [yes, it's winter here, but it's a beautiful day and it will be warm in a sunny spot].

QUALCOMM will lead the world out of the gloom. QUALCOMM is the pre-eminent harbinger of The New Paradigm; major paradigm shift happens and Mighty Q! is the prime mover. Nokia signed with QUALCOMM for CDMA in 3G and infrastructure. Watch Q! zoom...and go wild if the W-CDMA world collapses into cdma2000 which is looking increasingly likely with WAP, GPRS and EDGE problems, not to mention W-CDMA itself.

I'll stick with globalisation, 6 billion people's needs and dreams, ever-accelerating technology developments, increasingly politically stable world, Israel/Palestine, Arabs, USA/Iraq, China/Taiwan, Tim McVeigh/Ted Kaczynski/Bill Joy/Waco/Luddites vs USA vs Cyberspace, etc notwithstanding. You probably wonder why I put Bill Joy of Sun Microsystems with Tim, Ted, Waco and Luddites: See Bill Joy's "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us" wired.com

Mqurice
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