For a variety of reasons, I think flash memory chip sales will show an absolute increase in unit sales for the quarter just ended, though I'm not sure if that means an actual increase in revenues. By unit sales, I mean the number of actual cards sold and the average capacity per card. Both numbers should be up, despite the economic slowdown.
Royalties are another matter. Since royalties are based on a percentage of selling price, and the prices of flash memory have been dropping precipitously, royalties may be down even though the number of units on which royalties are paid may be up. Royalties may also contribute to higher margins, since we know that excess inventory has caused a temporary cutback in production (and therefore less production costs for the quarter).
As far as stock price goes, SNDK fluctuates pretty much in line with the semiconductor group. If Intel and AMD go up, so does SNDK, even though the respective products are quite different. Even if the results for the quarter exceed expectations (very likely, particularly since the company did not give an earnings warning), the stock price will most likely continue to be tied to the key semiconductor stock performance, rather than reflect the particular merits of SNDK.
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