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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 301.88-1.0%Jan 14 3:59 PM EST
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To: Jerome who wrote (48702)7/4/2001 10:59:42 AM
From: daryll40  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Jerome,

You sure state the bear case very clearly and it's very possible that things will play out the way you state. As always, there is a bull case...here's MY guess of what that could be:

1. The fed has been cutting fast and furiously with no apparent result. Same thing happened when they raised rates for 1.5 years...they it DID happen...all of the sudden. Could be the case here on the upside for the economy. Remember, the economy is like a large ship...takes a while to change directions and speeds.

2. The tax "refund" coming is too little to save and too much to ignore...most people will spend it. Stimulates the economy...and the amount ($600 per couple) is not enough to persuade someone to buy a new car but is EXACTLY enough to persuade someone to buy a new $1000 computer.

3. Gas prices are declining. As discussed here, not necessarily a big ABSOLUTE but very definitely a big psychological factor to people making spending plans.

4. The slump has been long enough that many individuals and businesses will FINALLY need/want to upgrade from 100 MHZ Win 95 with a 1 Gig hard drive to something more current.

Just my bull case. In the real world, who the hell KNOWS what is going to happen.

Daryll40
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