Qualcomm......
It's been a long time since this Thread could stand up and really cheer. The past 18 months are generally pretty depressing, for those heavily invested in the Q, which when I surveyed this group a year ago Spring, was > 90% of survey participants.
A lot of good things have happened to the Q in those depressing 18 months. I'm not as close a follower as many others, but events that come to mind (in no particular order) include:
1. BREW
2. Multi-mode ASICs
3. CHINA issuing contracts, and announcing over and over, a CDMAone network with capacity of 10-13 million by end of 2001, increasing by 10 million/year for next 2-4 years.
4. Nokia licensing agreement, cross-licensing of IPR.
5. Wingcast
6. In-flight agreement for high speed internet connections on planes
7. Dumping Globalstar altogether, or taking command at a smaller cost.
8. Rollout of 2.5G in Korea, Japan, North America over next 18 months.
9. SpinCo, though this may or may not happen,
I've been deeply impressed with the dichotomy between the stock action and the company news these past 18 months. The above news of the past 18 months seems to be as good or nearly as good as the news of the prior 12 months, yet look at the stock price. Yes, there are numerous ventured explanations of this nonrelationship between the stock price and the company achievements, but it is quite fascinating nonetheless.
Qualcomm looks very much like a gorilla, in a dominant and influential position, with a sustained competitive advantage. I think profits and stockholder earnings will ensue, though more in a slow and steady fashion, than in my hoped-for fast and spectacular wishes. I agree with Cha2 that the internet nexus of data will push wireless use, but right now, I can't see widespread adoption based on these tiny screens on cell phones.
I've held on to my shares, don't plan to sell any, may actually add someday. But it looks like the jackpot, for me, may be in holding thru 2010 or something like that.
The tornado seems to be years away, even for 2.5G. This will take great patience on my part. Acceleration the the time of a tornado may occur with new killer apps, besides email, but I don't see this at this point. Speech recognition could have been a killer app, but that industry seems to be in disarray, from what I can tell.
Opinions of the Thread???
1. When will the tornado(es) take place?
2. What are some of the other hidden software/hardware initiatives that will emerge, that I have neglected to mention, and on which we should keep our eye focused?
3. Given what looks to be a drawn out timeframe for 2.5G and 3G adoption, how competently will Qualcomm be steered after Dr. Jacobs, SR. retires someday, as he inevitably will do?
Appreciate Eric L's ongoing independent perspective and balance.
best to all on the 4th,
Apollo |
