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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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To: KymarFye who wrote (79479)	7/4/2001 4:18:16 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Kymar, you know what I fail to see in the financial press, is the possibility, IMTO, that what we are going to experience is a "double dip" recession. What do I mean by double dip? I mean that the first recession (what we are experiencing now) being mostly an inventory adjustment and excess capacity absorption (and thus capex) slow down, not really resulting in a true recession, namely 2Q's of negative growth in GDP, followed next year (late in the year, possibly starting next summer or autumn) by a true consumer recession (which will result in 2Q or more of negative GDP growth). This possibility is what is partially guiding my own model of a strong market after what I expect to be "the summer massacre", into next April, and then another bear market in equities late into 2002 and early 2003. Zeev

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