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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (4225)7/5/2001 8:03:13 AM
From: Stoctrash   of 33421
 
Ray...just had a great Holiday with some friends and relatives at the beach and confirmed more of my views. Got in a few long conversations with a high up at a chem and oil company who happens have about 50% market share of the chemicals used in the semi biz.
Wanna guess what he said ;-)
"First half 2002 recovery is what we HOPE, this second half bounce is NGH -"nut gunna happen"

Another point we tossed about was the MSFT upgrade cycle, again like ME, his view was many corporations like his will delay anymore upgrades to new systems because the productivity is just not there. His analogy on this one was "ok...mr. MIS employee, you're 20% more productive...so now give me a list of 3 of your friends that work here so we can fire them <GGG>"

...his macro view of the Worlds econ, "the perfect storm" or "luch box joe's demise",,,etc etc. and the real winner in chips down the road will be those who can get production moved to China first. Cost in Tiawan is about 12-1 person for person compared to the USA. China is about 24-1 (no brainer). Tiawan is running out of space physically and talent so the next big shift is China...something I thin most people with BRAINS like me already knew <GGG>

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cramer just said CSCO could goto 12 now and not to buy it,...marconi is now macaroni...and ECB leaves rates alone, now get out there and buy some tech LOLOLOL!!!
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