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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 214.990.0%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST
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To: Cirruslvr who wrote (46174)7/5/2001 5:57:34 PM
From: andreas_wonischRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
Cirrus, Re: I hope people seriously analyze their view of AMD now. Some people had extremely positive views until an hour ago. But I bet it still won't change some peoples' view of AMD. I know because three years ago I was in the same position. Now, there is NO Athlon to save AMD and the stock community has lost faith in the company again.

I agree completely. And I remember a good post from you on this topic a few weeks back. Too bad that many investors ignored it. With AMD falling back badly on the clock-speed curve and Palomino being delayed again and again (while even scaling worse than Thunderbird), I expect AMD to post losses soon (unless the whole industry recovers by a miracle). I think next week's CC will be critical. If there is any word on further delays or new speed-grades being pushed back, I'll short AMD on any strength.

It looks like that the street is always behind on AMD. When Athlon was released almost no-one realized that it would change everything. Now, with Athlon at the end of its life cycle, most analysts are extremely bullish for AMD and expect them to do better than Intel. They seem to ignore those critical details we discuss here (roadmap delays, clock-speed scaling, IPC vs. MHz advantage etc). It's probably a good advice to exactly do the opposite what they believe.

AMD will probably a good investment again if either the industry recovers quickly (doubtful) or when Hammer is released. But that won't happen before late '02. And with the current management I even doubt this date.

Andreas
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