Hank, I really appreciate your analysis.
I am very skeptical of all the talking heads on CNBC and elsewhere. My first impulse is always to think of what THEY want me to do, and consider doing the opposite.
Lately, I conclude we have some serious traders dealing with the entire market who want large swings and volatility while the market, as a whole, goes nowhere.
My concern with some of the bigger biotechs is that some of them depend on large returns from a few blockbuster drugs and the new techniques could produce newer drugs that pull the rug out from under them. You are right that the new drug may well be grabbed by another big firm, or the same one.
I am a bit partial to Eli Lilly, although I may be biased by their giving me a free vacation and tour a few decades ago and taking me to the Indianapolis Speedway! LOL!
I look at the NAZ and I see all kinds of companies, not just the computer types that bubbled. Overall, the index was punished much more than the DOW and some big caps like CSCO got punished last. I agree the NYSE was not pushed nearly enough and could be due, but you could argue it did not rise as much.
Cash can be king but the return has been shrinking lately. I can well see rates rising again if Greenspan worries about inflation as you described. The variations on price controls being used may backfire and cause more shortages.
I took a bad day to travel. How much of the dump today is because many others took time off and low volume let the sellers choose to dominate. Maybe next week, when the sellers take vacation, ... |
