Eichler, that was indeed a risky play, but when deployed last week, and redeployed today, I was not expecting a short bounce, I still had the 2250 as a target, so i had to follow the turnips into this deridation. When all the plays on this run (since we went trough 2096 last week) are finally summed up, it turns out that despite today's rapid retreat, I ended up nicely ahead, and gave back less than half the profits on this run so far. Originally, I had today as a local bottom, but the imminent breach of the 2078 may change that as the start of a main leg down.
A number of indicators (apart of prices) point to that direction. For instance, VIX and VXN, are not just low, but seems to have actually turned and quite sharply. For markets to go down, fear must increase, not just be at a low ebb. That is why I do not look at the nominal value of VIX and VXN but at the derivative, and these one have definitely made a turn. This without getting excessive readings in the tic series. |
