Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 214.87

-0.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: heatsinker2 who wrote (46210)	7/5/2001 7:47:16 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) of 275872

<5 possible reasons for the very late warning:> Interesting exercise... <1. Lousy ASP's for processors.> Invalid reason. CEOs and CFOs know the impact of this kind of stuff well before hand. <2. AMD is run by idiots. They didn't know that sales were lousy.> The first sentence has merit. The second one doesn't. A 17% shortfall should be evident several weeks before the quarter ends. <3. Jerry was involved in a game of chicken with Intel. He knew that Intel had to warn and he wanted them to go first.> Possible/likely. Especially given Jerry's ego. <4. When Jerry warned, he wanted to be able to say, with certainty, that processor sales and and processor marketshare had increased. He had to wait quite a while to get confirmation.> Possible - given Jerry's ego. <5. Petz's flash collapse theory. This theory states that AMD caved in to Alcatel and then had to cut prices for everyone else. A flaw is that this would tend to impact Q3 prices, not Q2. However, a more refined version is that Jerry was going to stuff the channel for Q2 and decided against it when he realized that Q3 would be awful because of the collapse in flash.> Total nonsense. Isn't worth discussing. <What do I think? All of the above in varying degrees.> Plus some other reasons that are possibly more nefarious. <I also think that things are not really so bad. > Compared to what? This stinks given that the lowest steet estimate was over $0.20. <AMD is making money and moving forward. > What is the right valuation for the company that is making money versus a company making a lot of money versus a company making lot more money. <Product development plans are moving ahead. > As opposed to moving behind? Wakeup! PaloMIA is a year behind schedule and possibly slippin still. <Delays are part of this business. > So is cluelessness.

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