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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 671.910.0%Nov 14 4:00 PM EST
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (79523)7/5/2001 9:21:46 PM
From: Paul A  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Zeev, im starting to get dizzy with this whipsawing! My only regret is they didnt get CCMP back into the mid/upper 60s for me.. given that earnings are just around the corner, ill probably have to settle for starting a new short position here about 55 is possible..

One thing which really has me a bit upset is when I see companies like Intel painting one picture, and being in the industry I see something entirely different.. same thing with AMD- look at the news over the last few weeks.. It really made the biggest bear start to doubt his/her convictions.. In my mind, aside from AMDs warning being alot worse then I expected- I could make the arguement that this is like the finaly cycle of the wash, and in fact this is what bears have been pricing in over the last few months with failure to break that magic 2250/2300.. Im not so eager to run out and short anything at this point.. although if I was playing longer term (6-12 months) I would hit the semis with everything since I think a recovery is hog wash : (

Ill probably add to my MU short tomorrow and change that strategy a bit since it didnt get to my target of the mid 40s, but IRF is goign to be a tough call.. Do I average down near the low 30s with a tight stop? or just get out as it fights to hold tomorrow? Some shorts are sitting on fat profits here so a DCB has to arrive eventually.. no ?

...still cant believe I covered my semis last week.. coulda should woulda.. ah well !
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