I have donned back my bear suit, don't assume that it will be an "easy trip" down, the market will have a bunch of surprises, Yes, the way this retrenchment today (which was "suposed" to be a minor pull back, not to breach 2100) failed (well the fat lady still has to sing the 2078 tune, but i think it is given that sound will be proclaimed tomorrow), indicates that we may go hard down. Yet, this market has surprises all the time. Two weeks ago it was on its way to 1850, and at 1973, it suddenly (and quite meekly) turned. That market will take each one of us, and prove us to be "fools".
I feel foolish already.<g>
This market is just proving to be too unpredictable.
Don't think the reasons that existed in late March are there anymore for a drop into the 1800s.
Just as we saw no follow through to the upside on the Nasdaq, we will probably experience the same on the downside.
For that reason, I am basically changing my outlook for simply a trading range 2000 and 2300 unless one of the factors below comes into play.
I mentioned that I will be watching Intel tomorrow. There are reasons to buy on the AMD warning (imho) and if the afterhours losses are erased and it goes up, I am going back to my prediction for Nasdaq 2400 by mid to late July. If Intel does poorly, I might be joining the camp that is calling for a drop below 2000. Anything in between and I would probably stick to the trading range of 2000 to 2300.
One point to remember is that we are entering earnings season and are exiting warnings. That could be a factor in the coming 2 to 3 weeks.
Another factor is that the hope of summer rally as talked about on CNN and CNBC today seems to be fading. Now, I wonder if that is a contrarian indicator. |
