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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: craig crawford who wrote (111321)	7/6/2001 7:16:26 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) of 436258

At last! A worthy adversary! Strong economy and POG Recent history shows a bear market for Gold in strengthening economy, and a bull market for gold in weakening economy (yes I know, those were inflationary times, but the inflationary part came in the later stages of Gold's bull market). >> also the '99 low has not held not in real dollar terms You're right. And that what makes it such a lovely giant ending diagonal pattern, that was completed at the REAL low in April. Look at a weekly OHLC chart of the last 5 years. On a nominal scale it's a failed 5, and on real scale it's a marginally lower perfect closure. >>hold on there just a second. who said the dollar was going to fall? what happens to your scenario if the dollar only gets stronger? If the Dollar only gets stronger then it will surely be stronger against Gold as well. $200/oz is then a possibility. Dollar index jumped to a new high yesterday but Gold still hasn't visited new lows, showing a little strength against the Euro, for example. BTW, if you weigh Gold against a basket of world currencies instead of just the Dollar, you'll find we're quite a way from the bottom. ATG

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