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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Apollo who wrote (44163)	7/6/2001 9:53:20 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) of 54805

Apollo, Surely you'll get another cool post out of that one. But since you don't care about them and tekboy does, next time it would be nice of you to PM your post to him so he gets the credit. :) The only thing I can add is that the lack of apps is a major constraint to the tornado. Though you mentioned instanat messaging for consumers and e-mail anywhere for businesses, I think the real key that fosters a tornado will be the so-called killer app. Depending upon how much supply (bandwidth and geographic network coverage) is created before demand catches up, my guess is that the monster tornado will be in 3G, not 2.5G. I don't think 2.5G will create enough supply for a significant tornado in either strength or duration. One other point is that the manual leads us to presume that there is only one tornado in one space. Because adoption of CDMA is dependent upon the decision-making process of governments (as in China), it's still remotely possible (though probably only remote) that there might be a second voice-based tornado. The reason I make the distinction between voice and data instead of the distinction between 2.5G and 3G is because the lines will continue to blur as to why customers sign up and which of the the available services they acutally use. As Eric has always been right to point out, tracking subscribers has been a proxy at best for measuring the tornado; tracking subscribers really isn't an accurate measurement. That point will muddy up the issues even more in the future than in the past as new services become available. I really do believe it's in Qualcomm's best interest to implement the spin-off plan, but I've gotta admit that I have an agenda that doing so might allow us to simply use Qualcomm's revenue as the measure of future tornados if management gives us enough detail. Congratulations again on another superb post! --Mike Buckley

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