Apollo,
I know you know this, but hey, Email is the killer app of the Internet, at this point. Why can't the ability to get Email, or to post on SI, anywhere or anytime, drive this wireless internet access market?
I think that's an important question but only indirectly so. For me the direct important question about constraints to the tornado is: What is the killer app that will be so compelling that end users will gladly buy a new hardware device to be able to use it? Maybe it is e-mail, but I don't think so. I don't think e-mail or the ability to post on SI is so time-sensitive that people can't wait as little as two hours or as much as 10 hours to access it. If I'm wrong, the hand-held devices with larger screens enabling the easy reading of e-mail will be adopted in droves. But if the e-mail is that important, my guess is that the need to respond to it will also be important, in which case the keypads on current handheld devicces offer too much of an obstacle.
My guess is that there will be a business- or consumer-based killer app that will be so important that endusers will demand hand-held devices with bigger screens and an ability to easily enter data. (Whether that's through voice recognition software, pen-based software, or larger keypads, I dunno.) Only when that particular killer app comes on the market that will also enable mobile access to e-mail will we see the future that all of us imagine. My point is that I don't believe e-mail will be the killer app that drives the next mobile tornado. As always, I could be very wrong.
--Mike Buckley |
