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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 220.28-6.4%3:59 PM EST

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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (48761)7/6/2001 1:10:23 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
RE: "... the point of maximum pessimism..."

This will occur when the industry is mired in losses and layoffs and management reaffirms that they have no idea when orders will turn up.

If one believes Lucent and Northern Tel statements of 12 to 18 months and one understands that semi-equips lag the semis who need telcom to turn up, then my best guess is 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2002. My plan has AMAT at $25 then; my nightmares $10.
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