Eric,
Your cogent comments deserve a lot of attention and I agree with the spirit of all of them if not always the particulars. Relative to the issue in which we take different paths, I'm extremely conservative, I suspect even more so than you as exemplified by the following:
Feel free to choose your own source for forecasting the wireless data tornado, but you probably won't find all that much variance from the above, and if this forecast is in any way accurate, the wireless data tornado (not the wireless multimedia data tornado), is at hand.
As an investor in Qualcomm, I'd like nothing more than to believe that you're right. My concern, considering the global nature of wireless use, is that a tornado is being confused with crossing the chasm. When the market is so large, does SMS and i-mode consitute a tornado? I don't know. Being so conservative about making declarations of these issues -- remember that I was the last to proclaim Siebel a Gorilla -- I'm leaning more toward thinking SMS and i-mode are symptoms of chasm crossings more than tornados. I could be wrong about that, of course, especially because I could be misled by our American experience which encompasses the use of neither.
Getting to the crux of your statement, you're mentioning at the outset that we should choose our method of forecasting the wireless data tornado while in the same sentence you're proclaiming that the data tornado is already upon us. Please clarify.
As always, thanks in advance!
--Mike Buckley |
