VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: BirdDog who wrote (38643)	7/6/2001 7:32:16 PM
From: limtex	Read Replies (1) of 65232

BD - Been hearing about recoveries not happening till everyone wants to get out etc also a lot of head and shoulders comments about the NAZ on cnbc this evening. My view for what it is worth is that all the above comments on the market aare total and complete nonsense. The market will only recover when business around the World starts to get back to naormal growth. Right now it has just started to implode globally and people are beginning to use the "S" word for the first time. The damage that hass been done is the greatest in the history of the market and we are just at the beginning. We can say that quite easily since we now know that not only the US is in recession and has been for some time and that Japan is in recession but also now Europe is just begiing to collapse. That itself will come back to the US in the form of reduced orders for US goods and lower earnings from the higher US $. This process has only just BEGUN never mind end. It will take at least five years in my view since before business improves ithas got to stabilize and stop imploding. At the moment business is getting worse by the qtr. Mr G has done a real job this time and there is no practical solution and that is why Kudlow and his colleague were so scary this evening. They seem to me to sense we have got a full blown depression on our hands for the first time in a hundred years and they don't know how to get out of it. Best regards, L

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