Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 235.24

+4.5%

Nov 19 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (48809)	7/6/2001 7:58:43 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (3) of 70976

What level will the next rally start from? Morgan has talked about $20B revenues in 5 years. If recent "bubble" business levels are removed from all tech companies, is it possible that the next up cycle takes AMAT from $4B to $12B and that 6 times sales produces a peak price of $75? In this case, a buy in the $10 - 25 range is necessary to produce the percentage gains we are seeking. This would correspond to the monthly bookings going from the current $700M to the previous high of $3B. I think that it is necessary to reestablish post "bubble" revenue start points and growth rates for all areas of technology. There is no doubt that technology will lead and drive the economy in future years, but the "bubble" has destroyed or is destroying the value of the recent track records. It is one thing to identify quality companies, leaders, and to have the courage to step up and buy them when they are being dumped, it is another to be on top of their fundamentals and to KNOW what to pay for them. Do you have revenue models for building long positions or are they based on technical analysis?

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