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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 225.43

+2.3%

3:44 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (48811)	7/6/2001 9:25:26 PM
From: Shoibal Datta	Read Replies (1) of 70976

The internet and the FO space was indeed a bubble; the same could not be said of the SCE sector IMO Brian, bubbles are relative. While semi and SCE sector bubbles may not have been as egregious as the internet and FO sectors they did exist. Case in point: AMAT 1995 revenues: 3061 mm AMAT 2000 revenues: 9564 mm Fold increase (revenues): ca. 3-fold AMAT Jan 1996 stock price: ca $9 AMAT 2000 peak stock price: ca $ 115 Fold increase (stock price): ca. 12-fold Case in point: INTC 1995 revenues: 16202 mm INTC 2000 revenues: 33726 mm Fold increase (revenues): ca. 2 fold INTC Jan 1996 stock price: ca $10 INTC 2000 peak stock price: ca $ 75 Fold increase (stock price): ca. 7.5 fold Revenue numbers are from smartmoney.com and stock prices are from a bloomberg.com 5 year chart The stock prices appreciated ca 7-12 fold when revenues increased 2-3 fold. That does not seem rational to me. I'm sure that there are holes in this kind of analysis, but I generally do not ascribe to the "things are different this time" philosophy. -SD

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