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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (44187)7/7/2001 8:43:57 AM
From: gdichaz  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
Mike: For some time the question has been when will the mobile wireless data tornado start.

That IMO is still the question. 3G is not.

Agree that there will never be a 3G tornado as such, since 3G is not where to look.

Once the focus is on mobile wireless data, then the gorilla question becomes practical. The beginning of the mobile wireless data bowling alley action is likely in the second half of this year. We should see start of the tornado next year.

The reason it is important to consider the wireless gorilla question this way is that there has already been a mobile wireless voice tornado, the next one to look for is re: data.

Looking in the 3G jungle is the wrong hunting ground IMO.

That is because the WCDMA/UMTS version of 3G will be so slow and so narrow (only in major cities), whereas the CDMA 2000 tornado will be much more pervasive - generally country wide and then Asia and Americas wide. Europe will be irrelevant, so let's not get distracted looking there.

In sum:

It is too early for the mobile wireless data tornado.

When is starts it will be concentrated in CDMA 2000(including 1xEV DO and 1xEV) and will be most clear in Asia and the Americas.

It will be generally country and region (meaning multiple countries) wide, not islands such as WCDMA/UMTS will be.

My view.

Best.

Cha2

Note: Qualcomm will continue as the CDMA gorilla.
It will become the mobile wireless data gorilla.
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