I think the Ameritraders are going to get their heads handed to them -- just mho on this go-round. By my read, they are still a little underwater from all the buying off the top.
People, me too, have been conditioned by recent events, they always are. What are these events? Well, we had the most spectacular run off lows in the history of American markets. This was followed by a rather trusty range that one could swing trade rather reliably. Hmmm... can you say "bear market rally followed by distribution top"?
This strikes me as a setup for major decline, or perhaps better-said, this is a situation where for the first time in many weeks, a major wipeout seems like a much higher possibility. The chances may well have, say, tripled. Yes, the raw chance of a crash-like decline may only be 10%, but I think it was probably only 3% a few weeks ago.
There simply is no fear.
People who read this as Allan going bearish along with the other late shorts are misreading me. I am no more bearish than last week. In fact, I am looking for a decent technical bounce by Tuesday (where I hope to take some money from these late shorts -g).
I challenge anybody reading this to give me a single decent reason to be long heading into the summer. (Technical bounces aside.)
Carrying lots o' cash and dusting off crash helmet for a hot summer... Yours, AA. |
