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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 223.95+1.7%Nov 21 3:59 PM EST
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To: daryll40 who wrote (48822)7/7/2001 9:51:28 AM
From: michael97123  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
Daryl,
I am unclear as to what more the Fed could do at this point that hasn't already been done. Another 1/4 pointer in August? Many of the bears claim that this time it will be different and don't fight the fed won't work. Since there is a 6-9 month lag, we will know shortly. I clearly remember the bulls in the Spring of 2000 looking at the continuing good earnings numbers, even as the markets began to turn south, and proclaiming it would be different after 5 or 6 rate increases. They were wrong. I hope the perma bears looking at the continuing bad numbers will be wrong this time. If they are right this could be a dangerous time and the recession may turn into something far worse. Mike

PS The bearish tone on this thread is becoming more and more convincing and that gives me some hope. There are few bulls here and the bears are super-intelligent, and make good arguments. Without much bullish sentiment and perhaps a black monday scenario unfolding, maybe we are at the end of the cycle just as the rate cuts begin to kick in. As I stated in an earlier post, my business is telling me that we will turn in the 4th quarter. But of course 6 months ago i believed it would turn by July-August so we shall see.
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