Allan, I can't give a logical reason to be long going into the summer, but I can recite some propaganda that may, or may not, have some merit.
Income tax refunds coming.
The first rate cuts are now 6 months behind us and thus supposed to "kick in sooooon."
Mind you, with Europe and Asia weakening, I don't think this means much over time. HOWEVER, if we start seeing economic reports here in the US that indicate "turnaround" it might very well be enough to create a rally of some merit. After earnings in July, you've got August and early September where there won't be warnings on a daily basis. If you look at the Naz chart from 2000, we managed a decent rally there.
Again, valuations are historically high and earnings are falling. It's not a great atmosphere for longs, I don't think. But the above is the best argument one can make for a rally.
the no-longer-travelling freep
PS. I also made six figures on lots of my puts, if you count the two figures after the decimal point. |
