AU produced 7,243,000 in 2000. First quarter, 01 was down 3 1/2% at 1,749,000. Uses 300 POG for reserves. Exploration in 2000 was $63 million, being cut this year to $46 million. Describes "contiguous exploration" in annual report; supplementary section. Nothing earth shattering in the results.
anglogold.co.za
The Good:
AU spends (or did spend) a lot of capital trying to extend mine lives and production of fairly high cost operations like Cripple Creek (250K @ 190 to 375K @ 175 to 2012 mine life) and Tau Tona (600K @ 172 to 2011) , Sunrise Dam (225K to 300K @ 172, likely mine life to 2010) They have an additional stable of moderate cost producers likely to survive into the 2010's:
Geita: 240K @ c.c of 141, long life (means well over 15 years)
Morila: 200K @ 127 to 2010
Great Noligwa: 971K @ 144, long life
Kopanang: 481K @ 215, long life
Tau Lekoa: 315K @ 216 to 2012
Tshepong: 320K @ 200 to 2016
Morro Velho 211K @ 134 to 2010
Moab Khotsong is a great new mine starting in 2003, 750K @ c.c 130, 12 year life.
Here are decent mines likely to deplete this decade:
Navachab 77K @ 189 to 2004
Jerritt Canyon 248K @ 215 to 2003, is now buying ore from Cortez.
Ergo 321K @ 208 to 2006
Serra Grande 96K @ 112 to 2005
Cerro Vanguardia 132K @ 146 to 2009
Sadiola 232K @ 114 to 2009
Yatela 94K @ 175 to 2007
The Bad and Ugly:
Mponeng 402K @ 238 to 2012
Boddington 77K @ 216 will soon deplete oxide. Feasibility will determine basement ore expansion. At 265 likely mothballed?
Tanami 48K @ 286 is nearly depleted.
Union Reefs 127K @ 274 is nearly depleted.
Bambanani 441K @ 272 is being peddled (to HGMCY?)
Joel 210K @ 288, operation suspended, 3.0 million "reserve" left.
Matjhabeng 368K @ 287 is nearly depleted.
Savuka 272K @ 247, has two year life but suffers from problems.
To 2005, 1,964,000 oz of production will be depleted. This is partially offset by Moab Khotsong's 750K and Cripple Creek's 125K expansion. Net loss of 1,139,000 as it stands today. Another 970,000 oz will be added from 2005-2010 depleted mines. AU will need to find low cost replacements for 30% of it's production.
*** The NEM, AU, ASL and PDG overviews are my best attempt to utilize the most recent reports available from the companies. There is a lot of data and I believe this is "pretty" accurate. But, I doubt if it is 100% so, and any corrections are welcome. The goal is a good mining reference to look at and gauge mining production over the next ten years. These companies use 300 POG for their reserves and would be less at 265. Of course an offset would be successful exploration on site. However, I'm finding that most recent reserve expansion occurs at mines that already have long lives or are newer (Geita, Bulyhanlulu) or superlative (Yanacocha), thus does little to stem depletion of shorter life, usually older operations. Clearly the evidence supports a substantial and steady downturn in gold output if current prices persist. |
