Hi Jim, <<… Japan they distrust the bankers … safety deposit box ... crammed with CASH ... a long time & why don't they talk about that?>>
We in Hong Kong also have a habit of keeping a fair amount of NAV in cash and cash equivalents, even to the extent of keeping fair amounts in paper cash stored in bank deposit boxes, along with our higher density metals, corporate papers and chops. This habit is made necessary by several issues:
(1) Retain operational freedom from spousal monitoring (we also keep a credit card that is billed to a mailbox service)
(2) Too much savings; thus true diversification (we like to be bomb-proof against government agencies, creditors and spouse)
(3) Spending cash from safety deposit box on presents to self (i.e. Patek watch reference 3970P, but during bankruptcy inventory clearance expected down the long road) punches no holes on budgeting psychology, because the money “wasn’t there” and certainly was not earning interest (we like to reward ourselves, during both good and bad times)
This cash is typically not available for stock investing; unless it is for a 24-hour holding period flip, horse racing or a visit to Macao casinos.
Given the ease of precious metals buying and selling, and the low commissions, and the uncertain "visibility", I sense that some of this safety deposit cash is being nursed now in metallic state.
On the rest of cash equivalents residing in bank accounts and brokerage accounts, they are not for investing in non-compellingly valued assets of any kind. The equity tide is receding, and thus cash is a perfectly acceptable holding until the future is more “visible”.
I would imagine that part of the reason for the buildup of cash equivalent in the US is due to the release of liquidity into the system by the system, and that the liquidity really has no productive place to go.
With last week's losses, the Dow is off 5% this year, while the Nasdaq is down 18.9% and the S&P 500 has dropped 9.8%.
Cash is doing pretty well, in comparison, and given the lack of compelling value in equity, bonds, real estate and currencies, I believe the “money held on the sidelines” can stay there for some time.
If the Nasdaq dropped to 1,400 by year-end, should one be a buyer, and if so, which stocks?
Same question, now for if the Dow and S&P held the current levels at year-end.
The nature of the current recession is not of the inventory correction variety, and if so, will not likely end with the rapidity of a CNBC news clip, and will meander out of the arena when it is good and ready, after the active combatants are dead and dying, leaving the few ‘pretending-to-be-dead’ true optimists to pick up the pieces.
Folks have little respect for the bear market now, and this will change.
Message 16040710
Chugs, Jay |
