Kailash, I don't think it was more reckless than my jumps to fully loaded Jan 3rd and April 4th, the lack of continuation of the drop past 1973, and the gap above 2078, forced me into the bullish camp. I was getting out of the play when we were approaching back and failing the 2120, anticipating the breach of 2078 (which naturally negated the false bull call). The moves are getting "narrower", instead of 1850, we got 1973, instead of a rise to 2250 we got 2180, and faster than I expected. Actually, all it was , was an attempt to catch the early July counter rally, it just did not go all the way. So what is the damage? Got in at 2096 got out at just above it. I think it is just as "wreckless" as it is "reckless". Actually, Larry is proud in not "Prognosticating", and I discussed some of the pros and cons of that method. As an example, my sell signal was around 2250, Larry's on the recent breach under 2078 or so, this 150 plus naz points difference is larger than the essentially nil difference between my recent buy and annulment of that buy.
The market could have gone back to that overhead resistance in the 2250/2300, then, Larry's system would have yielded a buy, and then, when the market finally resumed the standard scenario (July/Agust massacre), Larry's system would have yielded a new sell signal, probably not far from the last one, and thus another 200 naz point deficit. Would that have been "better prognostication"? Safer, possibly, but no one knows if the market would have then stopped or followed the"scenario". The funny thing is that I do not really know if we continue down the "scenario" path or not, it is just a "road map" with bad road signs, with which I try to determine, "where are we within the "scenario". I have stated times and again, I do not know how to get all the zigs and zags right, but when my turnips turn pale I run for the hills and when they blush I jump back in. Sometimes, the turnips don't know if what they think they know is what they really know, or only what they think they know but is not knoweable (Plato would have had fun with the latter one (g).).
Did you get what was trying to say? I am not sure I got it (vbg).
Zeev |
