<<< We are no longer in a Bull market... To trade now in the same manner as before could be exceedingly dangerous. IMHO. >>>
Yes indeed! What you said reminded me of some VERY good points Fleck made in his Dec. 14, 2000 Rap (excerpt below). The NDX was 2600, the Dung was 2800, The Dow was 10800 and the SPX was 1350. CSCO was still over 50, NT was 40, GLW 70, JDSU 61, LU 19, and EMC was 75, but POS was actually lower (34), just to name a few favorites......
siliconinvestor.com
More and more as I look at the
tape action these days, especially surrounding the election and its response to news, it strikes me as
completely and totally what I would call "retail." This is not to disparage anyone by taking a poke at
"amateurs," but when I started out in the business 20 years ago, the market had a way of figuring out
complex events such as the election. It would sneak and creep -- and almost always be right.
In the last few weeks, the market has run up into every election news event, whether it had any basis in
merit or not, only to end up getting smacked. Likewise, you see the same thing as companies report
bad news. There is no dot connecting. People wait until a company actually dives off a building, or many
times until it hits the pavement, before the stock gets sold. The mentality and the environment that
allowed people to buy a stock and make money simply because it split its shares is the type of
nonsence I'm talking about. That modus operandi won't work anymore.
The difficult environment that I foresee in the next couple of years will change that completely. The
people who will be left standing to ply their trade in the investment business will be those who are able to
conduct research, interpret, analyze and see things before others. Such skills have been an actual
impediment to doing well in the last couple of years, and in many cases were a recipe for disaster, since
it was so easy for folks who thought they knew something about how certain businesses would work or
evolve to get left behind or, in some cases, trampled.
The moral of the story, ladies and gentlemen, is that if you have learned to trade and deal with the
market action of the last couple of years successfully, you will have to change your skill set
prospectively if you want to remain successful. |
