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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 660.19

-0.8%

Nov 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: American Spirit who wrote (79689)	7/8/2001 3:29:50 AM
From: iod_sherwood	Read Replies (2) of 99985

you may want to revisit some of that... i gave an old example to my own readers back earlier in the year... explained the whole PMCS debacle... at a 25% annual growth rate, which they've basically declined now, it would take around 3 years before revenue levels return to year 2000. in absolute terms, that in itself would be a tremendous achievement. too many players out there. All the bulls are still living in the market of the past. That's why you just figure that things can pick up and get back to where they were. To do a proper and full correction, which we're enroute and have been in for, thigns get dragged out and take a lot of time to scrape/bottom out as you allude... There are still plenty of valid shorts out there... from things like SEBL MERQ to LLTC even something like CRUS is in trouble, technically. It's still very much a supply/demand game. The demand is far too insecure, there is no confidence from any analyst or investor... anything you hear/see in the media is "put on a brave face" - long term you're fine right!? A very likely scenario is we retest lows on the Nasdaq and then become relegated to a 200pt trading range for the rest of the year. Ever remember when JDSU/SDLI was the rage??? PR every day, hype in the media everyday... where is it now? Things like JNPR are going that way... certainly even something like SEBL could get that bad... No despair yet... stage 3... when the media's in despair... the bear will be nearly over ;)

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