To All, As expected, the Micron Tech tout-a-thon, complete with overstatements, half-truths and flat-out lies started last night and is escalating today. So, let's do a reality check. First, the statement that business is going well at MU now. Huh!? DRAM ASP is much lower now than it was last quarter when they made these eps. None of the bullish analysts and media commentators has mentioned that fact. Mbit sales were up by a third over last quarter. Again, no mention of the fact that this was done while the Koreans were artificially holding back inventory to boost 64 Mbit prices and to get out from under a "dumping" scam initiated by Micron. Or, of what will happen when the Koreans sell this inventory and MU keeps producing these glut chips in ever higher quantities.
Much was made of the current die shrink. No mention of the fact that Lowry, the guy who was the brains behind Micron's ability to stay ahead of the pack in this area, has left the firm. No mention of the much weaker pc market. No mention of the inventories piling up at MU.
There was mention of the fact that MUEI's pc sales weren't so hot, margins were crappy, and that they were not likely to get better any time soon.
So, let the games continue today. Over the next few days, expect upgrades to "greatest buy in the universe" from the brain dead or co-opted, such as Kurlak, Whittington and Niles. Then, buy puts with both hands. Without outside help, another DRAM scam, legal restrictions on DRAM imports (where Compaq, Dell, Hewlett, and IBM have filed papers in support of the Koreans and against Micron), or something of that sort, this firm is doomed to much lower eps in the future.
Good luck, MB |
