George S. Cole,
Just finished a long interrupted reading of "Devil take the Hindmost" by Edward Chancellor. The parallels evident between the recent internet/telecom/tech bubble and the railroad bubbles of the 19th century (England 1840's, US 1860-70's) were very timely reading when the book came out in late 99 and still are noteworthy, though there is now a lot of "hindsight" to add to the "Hindmost", ggg. There are a lot of parallels in various historical segments of the book that deserve more research than I have time to devote. A study of the economic recovery from various booms and busts over the years would be more even helpful than the study of each bubble's own history. In general it re-enforces the idea that the next bull market will have new leaders. Also the stories of pumpers, dumpers, plungers, bubbleblowers, guttersnipes, pointers, and all the shills and various stock con games (Comparator 1996 and Bre-X 1997 fit so well with the older accounts of years past) seem to have found new life in the internet age. As they do in any age and any market. Makes me thankful for the honest posters we have for the most part here and on a few other threads on SI, but all the same we all have to do our own work, make our own decisions and be careful!
BTW, I found this footnote to the gold market of the 1860's very interesting:
"By the end of 1862 the first manipulations in the gold market appeared. Lincoln, disgusted by the antics of gold speculators at a time of national self-sacrifice, decided to act. In 1863, Congress passed a law forbidding the trade in gold futures, but the market only interpreted this regulation as a sign of weakness on the part of the administration and the price of gold shot up by over a third. The government backed down and the law was repealed. No official attempt to restrict speculation was ever more futile or short-lived"
The time period of this quote was right after the introduction of the Greenback and the financing of the war effort via the printing of 150 million of the new currency (via the Legal Tender Act of early 62). Almost sounds familiar, ggg.
I believe this current article headlined on SI's home page gives yet more 70's flavor to the Fed's recent moves:
siliconinvestor.com
As you said, another straw in the wind or perhaps one too many on the camel's back?
Best Regards,
Roebear |
