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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: HairBall who wrote (71)7/8/2001 8:20:44 PM
From: Jim Willie CBRead Replies (2) of 306849
 
a note on residential market
I continue to hear more and more stories about sprawling suburbs of Boston
my personal interest pertains to residential market
not to investments such as REITs

town after town is imposing roadblocks for further development
and thus expansion of supply
the issues are water and sewage (public or private)
schools are not an issue
town treasurers want the wider tax base
but services are strained

the other roadblock has been minimum zoned lot sizes
the whole trend has essentially pushed the sprawl further and further out every couple years

I asked a well-informed SanFran friend about the last economic downturn in 1989-91
was told SanFran simply leveled off, treaded water
values were constant until 1993, then resumed their rise

it is going to take an outright recession to hurt property prices on residential side
supply is limited
with rental market so tight, nothing short of a 5% unemploymt rate will be required to bring down residential prices imho

any opinions would be appreciated
thanks, Jim
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