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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 683.38

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Nov 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: majaman1978 who wrote (79712)	7/8/2001 10:45:53 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (3) of 99985

How can you say we're in a "bubble"? Feels more like scraps of rubber from a busted balloon getting run over by a truck. If there's any air left in any bubble anywhere you'd have a hard time convincing anyone these days. Don't look at the PE's anymore because they're all out of whack from a sudden stoppage or orders which will eventually resume. Look instead at market cap plus probable losses (if any) plus debt minus cash, assets, goodwill, cashflow, profits (if any) and probable revenue spikes and longterm market niche position. OPne example I use is PALM which controls 67% of the handheld market but now has a market cap of only 3 billion. That means the entire global handheld market is being priced at 4.5 billion. That's less than the energy companies rip off California in one month (sorry couldn't resist). In other words small cheese. Remember nothing is ever as bad as you fear or as good as you hope. Most companies in trouble have already had the wind completely knocked out of them. EMC was an example of one which had not, but it sure has now. NOK was another but at 19 are you betting it will go down more? Remember as we go forward excess inventory will disappear altogether and with plant closures and lay-offs a severe shortage of new product may actually develop. No one can predict with any certainty when but historically turnarounds in the SOX for instance (which is a good indicator) have been strong and sudden. Also never forget though dot.coms have bombed the internet is still growing at an amazing rate globally. And maybe evolution has now made it lean and mean. Every day it's more universally utilized than before. I for instance do 90% of my business on the net. I also purchase half my goods. The internet is still on track and developing rapidly. We're just in a big shake-out period which won't last forever. The survivors should eventually do very well. As well as the infrastructure suppliers. Just a matter of your time horizon. Most companies that make it through this year should be in the clear (though smaller as a result due to lay-offs). Also expect a lot of conolidation. I'm surprised there hasn't been more already. It may come in a frenzied wave any time. This ATT-Comcast deal may be the start of it. While I'm not optimistic right now I wouldn't go shorting at what might be the bottom. Every time shortds assume the Naz is going to re-test it doesn't, then it rallies. Anything could happen though. What do you think of oil and energy stocks? Have sold off lately. Their earnings are going to be huge. Despite my disgust with Bush-Cheney I own some as a hedge. Some of them will post record profits and cashflow.

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