You may be entirely right, in your cautiously bullish stance. By the close last Friday, I was 80% long, 20% cash. First time I haven't had a large short position, since early April. I'll probably be 100% long, no cash, if the Nas retests the previous lows, which isn't too far below where we are now. Then, I have a hard decision to make, when the markets rally next: do I sell it again? That was the right choice for the January and April rallies. Eventually, selling the rallies will be the wrong choice. Eventually, you're right, the Fed's actions will start to affect the real economy, in a big way.
I keep on expecting the semiequips to go to the trough valuations we saw in 1996, or at least the ones we saw in 1998. It hasn't happened. I've been too pessimistic, in this sector. After spending a lot of effort following the semiequips, every passing month makes it more likely I've missed the bottom of this cycle. I was too pessimistic in 1998 also, expecting lower valuations, and only getting a partial position before the stocks took off.
This range-trading is hard, constant guessing, peering into the fog of the future. It will be nice, sooner or later, to go back to LT holding, and stop watching the market hour by hour. I'm getting tired of this bear market. |
