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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: tekboy who wrote (44238)	7/9/2001 10:54:23 AM
From: Judith Williams	Read Replies (2) of 54805

Tek-- I am struck by how little purchase... Not only with wireless. I am struggling with this wrt a Hunt Report Don Mosher and I are doing on BEA. Even if one nails the competitive advantage/IP/value chain questions spot on (dubious at best), you then have to worry about timing/duration of that advantage and what value the market will assign to the whole kit and caboodle going forward. It's a distant memory (bad one) from the past, but I seem to recall from probability class that in cases like this the predictive quality of the assumptions falls off the cliff. Something like (P1) x (P2) x (P3) where P=probability P1=competitive advantage P2=time (CAP issues) P3=value market assigns (probability of various stock appreciation scenarios) It makes the head swim. For this neophyte G&Ker, the path of least resistance is to look hard at the ingredients of competitive advantage and then hope that the rest take care of themselves in time. --Judith

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