ARS,
I'm also watching the Siebel July 45s and have come to much the same conclusions you have. However, I have two other thoughts that run around, somewhat unattended, in my head.
The first is the argument that I've seen made in several settings that Siebel tends to run up on the front end of earnings reports and down afterward. I'm not certain that's true but it's worth keeping in mind.
The second is the argument that the Nasdaq is trying to put in a higher bottom at this point, that earnings warnings may be about over, and that there is an increasing possibility we get a short term run up until earnings are over.
Either of these arguments suggest Siebel could easily move above 45 between now and the point you and I wish to sell our calls back.
I guess all I'm saying is that covered call writing is best done by those with the right long term conditioning--those who've spent rather larger portions of their recent work lives in somewhat cushioned chairs, hunched over computer screens, trying to recall the correct keyboard dance with their fingers.
Gotta watch those numbers.
But, after saying all that, I would love to see the $1 premium this week. I would buy back, definitely. Otherwise, I'm probably going to turn to strategies which come into play if I let the shares get called away.
Gonna be on the road some of next week and, when I'm home, without the DSL connection for a day while Verizon upgrades it. So I need to make up my mind this week.
John |
