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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 249.89

+3.1%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (48956)	7/9/2001 10:30:12 PM
From: Hayduke	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Brian, I think it is way too early to tell what - if anything - will supplant Silicon. I do believe it is very difficult to supplant an existing technology that is getting the job done. Any technology that wants to replace silicon as the material of choice must not just demonstrate a significantly faster transistor but also also methods of interconnect, packaging, etc. that are not just demonstrable, but as manufacturable, reliable and cost-effective as for existing silicon technology. And as well present enough of an advantage in performance or cost to abandon at least part of the existing infrastructure. This doesn't mean that it won't happen just that it has a lot of hurdles to cross. There aren't many Swiss watches around these days - on the other hand the gasoline-powered auto has survived and thrived. As far as AMAT is concerned, I can't believe that process technology development will stop because silicon technology is evolving a bit differently. As long as process changes affect the bottom line everyone will have to buy in. HD

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