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Strategies & Market Trends : Tang's school of business management for serious investors
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To: Arthur Tang who wrote (17)7/10/2001 7:58:07 AM
From: Arthur Tang  Read Replies (1) of 57
 
The rise and fall of Intel? Can that ever happen?

Intel started in 1972. When I visited Dr. Bob Noyes, I met Andy Grove and Craig Barret. After the fiasco of i486, when IBM had to give Intel $300 million to bail them out of possible damage restitution of the very i486 government contract. Intel rose from that problem to dominate in 386, 486, then the Pentium series of cpu products. Cash accumulated to $10 billion(DEC had $10 billion before their fall). Diversification and worldwide expansion resulted. But still the major business is semiconductor production and cpu designs.

Now comes the beginning of the fall of INTEL. New Pentiun 3 and 4 were designed to run hot. Failure to account for leakage currents and residual stress in CMOS transistors is mostly due to their self inflicted principle of running each fab with the same exact control on each machine through out the world. When any semiconductor engineer knows that machines vary and controls on each machine have to be tuned to the optimum.

The fact that server farms have many thin servers and has to be run cooler totally escaped Intel engineers. The fall is near. Come to think of it, DEC made the same mistake of running Alpha cpu hot. Even though the fall of DEC took ten years. Two company case history runs in parallel; one can demonstrate the other.
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