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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: RR who wrote (38744)	7/10/2001 9:35:36 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) of 65232

nobody is surprised by warnings about the current quarters but forward guidance is now expected to include some sunshine and EMC's warning pokes holes at that premise I maintain that Q3 will be dreadful, worse than Q2 and recovery will begin in Q4 at a lower starting point than widely expected all world economies are sliding downward, not up and Asia is slipping badly cheaper money has not accomplished much and the Fed is still hitting the brakes by 25-40 bpts the 3-mo TBill yield is a bit lower than FedFundsRate the problem is not the cost of money, it is the demand and worse, it is the expected returns on borrowed money the economy will get thru this mire it will take more time than expected, that is the rub the watchword to me is "DEBT" corporations are loaded with it households are loaded with it we tend to accept it as part of life and business it is, but in this climate, it leads to reluctance to take on more the economy lacks a definitive stimulus the tax cuts are so small as to matter little maybe we need a good war / JW

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