re: This market has really frustrated me
The long, long bull market made us all think we were genius stock-pickers. Now, most investors are finding out that, on average, most of us are.........average. Which isn't much fun, either for the ego or the net worth. Especially when "average", for stocks, is 7%/year (real return, after inflation, including dividends). I suspect that large numbers of people are going to stop paying attention to the stock market, because it isn't fun any longer. Maybe they will dollar-cost average into an index mutual fund. Or maybe they will get out of stocks altogether. This bear market may end on a disinterest bottom.
I hope no one is interpreting my stance as being a longterm bear on tech stocks. I am concerned that valuations haven't come down enough, in many stocks. And I think the bubble valuations of last year may never recur, not in my lifetime. And I think the macro situation could mean all stocks are held down into 2003. And I am concerned about all the Creative Accounting that makes it hard to value many companies correctly. But, LT, I firmly believe, as I always have, that tech is where the growth is. And I'm putting my money where my mouth is. Today, I added some out-of-the-money LEAPs in NTAP; I've been accumulating them whenever NTAP dips below 13. And I expect to do a lot better than 7%/Y with them. |
