re: 12 to 18 months says the telcom guys, next quarter says the market
My finger-in-the-wind says the market is no longer expecting a 3Q01 recovery. I think the market is now pricing in a recovery in 4Q01 or 1Q02. And, IMO, that is possible (but not at all certain), for the overall economy. Telecom, IMO, will be the last sector to recover, and it might take till late 2002, or even 2003, for demand to come back for CSCO and LU and JDSU. But the signs of a recovery, even for the telcos/telco-equips, will be evident before that, and the stocks will recover 6 months or so before the fundamentals do. So, your "window of opportunity" may be shorter than you think. When will INTC announce their 2002 capex? (now that I've been proven wrong about their 2001 capex, it's time to start guessing about 2002). |
