Eric, the power of statistics, and its manipulation.
The fact that CDMA market share has declined in the last 2 years while GSM has grown, doesn't reflect it.
Here are the numbers from Dec 99 to Mar 01. The reason I pick those two dats is because those are the only two time that both gsmworld and cdg have their time crossed and close two the term of two years.
Global: CDMA 50.1(mil) to 90.4(mil) increase of 80%
GSM 259(mil) to 503.4(mil) increase of 94%
So GSM beat CDMA right?
But look at the number a little closer.
Asia GSM 69.6 mil to 155.4mil increase of 123%
CDMA 28 mil to 39.6 mil increase of 41.5%
So as you can see Asia is the killer for CDMA in the past two years. However GSM and CDMA are not in direct competition, with GSM enjoyed the huge success in China, CDMA suffered subsidy setback in Korea, and tough competition from NTT in Japan. So the number is no way a reflection of the head to head fight between the two. It is certainly not a reflection of who is the open standard(I will touch this later).
Now let's look at in NA and SA,
NA
CDMA 16.5 to 33.843 105.1%
GSM 6.1 to 11.6 90%
SA
CDMA 5.1 to 15.9 211.8 %
GSM 0.71 to 2.4 338%
The two combined in NA SA
CDMA 21.6 to 49.7 130 %
GSM 6.81 to 14 105%
Granted GSM in SA is a short story therefore the number is hardly be used for comparison.
So as you can see, in head to head competition between the two, namely NA(+SA), CDMA is still enjoying the bigger growth compare to GSM, of course there are also competition from TDMA sides, however that also applies to CDMA side so I will just offset that effect all together. |
