Jacob, When you say "And I think the bubble valuations of last year may never recur, not in my lifetime", you must mean the sky-high valuations of the internet stocks. Real tech stocks like AMAT, TXN, INTC, ALTR, etc. should, in my opinion, see new highs within 2-5 years if the tech economy gets back on track. I am just guessing about that, but it seems reasonable, hope I am not being too optimistic. If AMAT were to repeat the performance coming off the low in 98 (almost zero chance, IMHO) it would be at about 340 in a couple of years, using the low so far of about 34 and the fact that the 98 trough to peak was about 10 times gain. Also with just a 10% compounded gain per year, the Nasdaq would make a new high in 10 years.
Thanks for the input on NTAP. I wonder why you selected this one. There certainly seems to be upside with this one, but I am guessing the big risk is from EMC. The numbers look good, cash on hand, PEG, etc. Please share any thoughts you might have.
It is too bad that the creative accounting you refer to is not illegal. In general, I think there is way too much BS in company reports and also on Wall Street.
Things seem pretty bad right now in tech land. But given that we both believe that LT tech will provide significant growth, a downturn such as this, in theory at least, should provide opportunity (depending on one's available cash and savings level during this downturn). I hope that on this thread we can use our collective talents to zero-in on some of these great buys that have already occurred or are that will soon occur. I also hope we can check each other's logic on the important things. For example, am I right that the internet is a truly fantastic technology that is just in the early innings? Everyone seemed to think so a couple of years ago. I was watching CNBC about a month ago and heard some of the regulars talk about the web as if it was really nothing big after all, just a place to check weather, sports scores and so forth. Am I missing something here, or are these guys maybe a good contrary indicator of how the market will react going forward?
John |
