| No, I wasn't just speaking about the trash (most of those stocks are well on their way to zero). I meant the quality companies, the survivors. I was speaking of valuations (PE, P/S, P/CF), not stock prices. Sooner or later, AMAT will go above its 2000 high stock price. Probably not in the next upcycle, maybe the one after that. But I doubt I ever see AMAT at a P/S of 10 again. The only way a thing like that can happen is in a market bubble, where everyone has become a momentum investor. By 2000, every mutual fund manager who paid attention to valuations, had been fired, because he had underperformed the Irrationally Exuberant managers, for years. This has been a truly epochal event. The aftermath from these events is so painful, it scars an entire generation of investors. Once we are all dead or senile, our children or grandchildren will repeat our recent mistakes. But not till then. |
