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To: Paul Shread who wrote (112061)	7/11/2001 12:17:26 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (4) of 436258

in a word, yes. July 23 is an excellent candidate, as is July 18. well, the difference between the futures fax look at the comparison and mine is the moon phase. this was pointed out by Ian Thijm to give proper credit: the last interim high in both '87 and '29 occurred on the quarter moon, which would be tomorrow in our present case. thus the expectation that today and tomorrow will see a possibly strong bounce. note also that the Fed has added a breath-taking 7.5 billion in repos to the system today, no doubt to support the market. a coupon pass for delivery tomorrow was announced as well. this follows on the heels of 7.25 billion in repos and coupon passes on Monday, and altogether over 17 billion last week. much of this money finds its way into the market, with loans for securities being the bank loan category showing by far the strongest growth all year long so far (this is one of the more conspicuous parallels to the late 20's/early 30's period btw.). the crisis in Argentina is coming to a head...my guess is it may become one of the triggers for the capitulation, similar to the '97 capitulation when the Asian crisis began. another potential trigger (though less likely) are the upcoming PPI/CPI and trade deficit numbers. note that e.g. the consensus expectation calls for core PPI up 0.1% and headline down 0.1%. so there's room for disappointment. another potential trigger would be an earnings warning by one of the big important Dow stocks, like e.g. IBM or GE, as it would hit the market unprepared. both companies have a slew of accountants that appear to do nothing but ensure that WS estimates are either hit exactly or exceeded by a cent or two when possible. WS has come to rely on these accountants to have perfected the game to the point of infallability, so there's also room for disappointment there. since it is not a free market, but one that is subject to support ops by the Fed and occasionally mysterious buyers in the futures markets it will take a surprise that triggers a true avalanche to enable the market to put in a proper interim bear market low imo.

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