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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners
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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (7881)7/11/2001 12:38:14 PM
From: Wizard  Read Replies (2) of 57684
 
>>Stocks in tech are priced for depression which is exactly what's happening.

As I am sure you are aware, business spending is in a very severe recession and has been for 7-8 months now. However, my view is that telecom is the only sector in depression. The rest of the segments have just been hit with a (major) cyclical downturn in business spending due to boom of overinvestment and a major profit margin squeeze. That part is in the process of healing though and while still in freefall, the rate of decline was scarier in Q1, in my opinion.

Unlike Q1, none of my holdings pre-announced negatively here in Q2. Business was bad in Q2 but was it surprisingly bad? not in my opinion. I would think that 4/4 should be the extreme low given how SURPRISINGLY bad everything was then. Don Hays is saying 39-week Put/Call ratio is at record highs. >$2 trillion in money market funds. We just need a catalyst from some company that can stand up and show some leadership. Not sure who or what that is and that is problematic but optimistic I am... Negative profit growth will almost certainly be at its worst this quarter given much easier comparisons. Fundamentals could very well be lagging indicators for stocks bottoming just as they were in early '00 at the peaks.

NASDAQ 1950
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